The international context has experienced a significant modification in the last year Accordingly, risk assessment has changed, upwards for some countries and downwards for others. The slowdown in growth and global trade will weigh on exports of emerging countries (I). Despite international financial stress, financing conditions for emerging countries remain relatively favourable (II). The rises in the prices of oil, metals and most foodstuffs are reflected, all in all, for emerging countries by the largest gains in terms in 25 years, but also by an overall acceleration in inflation that is hard to manage socially and economically and in some cases by growth in fiscal and external deficits (III). Everything said and done, the slowdown in growth expected in emerging countries in 2008-09 will probably be moderate, given the extent to which domestic demand is resilient, but with significant downside risks (IV).

In this configuration, country risk developments are mixed A trend improvement in systemic credit risk is continuing in large countries that are integrated in international trade and have achieved higher potential growth as well as in other countries that are benefiting from the surge in commodity prices, especially oil prices. By contrast, country risk has deteriorated for countries that were previously overheating and are hit by a further worsening in external deficits due to the increase in the oil bill, and also for poor countries in which social unrest has been fuelled by the recent acceleration in inflation in food prices.